Thailand’s Costly Political Shenanigans

A monitor shows suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra during proceedings at the Constitutional Court in the capital on Thursday. The Court will rune on August 29 whether to disqualify her as premier | Photo: Bloomberg

In an op-ed article by Bangkok Post, Thitinan Pongsudhirak asserts that Thai politics will be unstable in the coming weeks as the government is likely to change upon the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

In a country of 70 million where a handful of men can remove an elected government time and again, there can be no stability and progress, only tension and regression. This is how Thailand can be characterised over the past two decades. It is now going through yet another cycle of heightened political instability with the potential collapse of the government under suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the footsteps of previous leaders who were similarly ousted by the Constitutional Court.

After satisfactory tariff talks with United States trade officials that lowered import duties from 36% to a new rate of 19-20% for most of Southeast Asian economies, Thailand is beset with a portentous political environment that is murky in all directions, compounded by the drumbeat of ultra-nationalism and war with Cambodia. Under suspension from office on an ethics charge for her damaging phone call on June 15 with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, now suspended PM Paetongtarn will face the music on Aug 29 when the Constitutional Court is set to rule on her case. By all accounts, her survival chances are slim to nil.

Combined with her father Thaksin Shinawatra’s two criminal court cases on alleged royal defamation and violation of his jail conditions after returning from 15 years in exile in August 2023, the Shinawatra family’s dominant era in Thai politics over the past 25 years is winding down, while establishment forces have prevailed at the cost of the country’s concurrent political paralysis and economic stagnation. As a result, Thai politics will be unsettled and unstable in the coming weeks as the government is likely to change hands either with or without a new poll.