Thailand and Cambodia’s Ceasefire: Will It Stop War When Elites Want Conflict?

A Cambodian military personnel stands on a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher in Oddar Meanchey province, Cambodia, on July 25, 2025 | Soveit Yarn/Reuters

In an article published by Council on Foreign Relations, Joshua Kurlantzick argues that while Thailand and Cambodia have reached a temporary ceasefire in their border conflict, it is unlikely to hold as the conflict’s escalation is driven by Thai and Cambodian elites’ efforts to consolidate military and political power.

Will the ceasefire last? Already, even after the ceasefire was negotiated, Al Jazeera, reporting from the conflict zone, found that fighting was still going on between Thais and Cambodians as before. The deal does nothing to address the border area claimed by both countries.

And to understand why this ceasefire might not hold, it’s important to understand the real roots of the conflict, and not those often focused on in media reports. Most media reports talk about the fact that the countries have been disputing this area for decades, in part due to poor boundary-drawing over 100 years ago by the French colonial authorities controlling Cambodia and making border deals with independent Siam. (Thailand was never a colony.) They also usually note that both countries claim, in this disputed area, architectural marvels – a 1,000-year-old, still largely intact Hindu temple called Preah Vihear, as well as another large and beautiful temple called Prasat Ta Muen Thom.

The New York Times’ “quick guide” to why the countries are fighting, for instance, talks about the long history of clashes over this disputed border area, and how some in the past have turned deadly, if not as deadly as this fight. The guide notes that there are many Khmer people living on the Thai side of the border, further complicating any border dispute. It also notes that both sides say the other shot first when the conflict began on May 28 and reports Hun Sen’s claim that this intense conflict was stoked by Thai generals who closed Prasat Ta Muen Thom for a time.