Major Developments and Worsening Risks for Mass Atrocities in Papua, Indonesia

Students in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia who are members of the Papuan Student Alliance held a demonstration to commemorate the 62nd anniversary of the New York Agreement between the Netherlands and Indonesia. They are demanding the right to self-determination for the West Papuan people as a democratic solution, while opposing all forms of racism against Papuans. August 16, 2024 | Dimas Rachmatsyah / ZUMA Press Wire / Alamy

In a report for the Early Warning Project, Made Supriatma discusses the risk of mass atrocities against Indigenous Papuans in Papua, Indonesia. Despite developments in the region's administrative structure, increased military presence, and revived transmigration and food estate development programs, marginalization still fuels Papuan nationalism.

Executive Summary:

This report provides an update to our 2022 assessment of the risk of mass atrocities (large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations) against Indigenous Papuans in Papua, Indonesia. As outlined in the 2022 report, the risk of mass atrocities in Papua is based on structural factors—Indonesia’s history of mass violence, political exclusion, and militarization—and immediate drivers of violence, including protests, intra-Papuan divisions, and intensifying armed clashes. Over the past three years, Papua has undergone significant changes. The Indonesian government has rapidly expanded the region’s administrative structure, increased the military presence, and revived controversial transmigration and food estate development programs. Targeted inclusion policies have accelerated the representation of Indigenous Papuans in the military and local government. Despite these developments, the broader Indigenous population remains deeply marginalized, which has fueled Papuan nationalism. Political expressions of and mobilization around pro-independence sentiment have increased—as evidenced by the steadily rising demonstrations. In response, the Indonesian government has intensified repression and expanded military deployments. Armed clashes between guerrilla fighters and Indonesian forces have continued, with separatist groups expanding their areas of operation. As a result, the number of internally displaced persons has risen sharply. This report is based on research in Indonesia, including in Papua, from October 2024 to March 2025, as well as on consultations with experts outside of Indonesia and a literature review.